I think Susan Estrich‘s prediction is dead on.

A funny thing is about to happen to Barack Obama. No matter how much he thinks he’s ready for it, he isn’t. No matter how many people warn him, he’ll be surprised. And hurt. And angry.

His friends in the press are about to turn on him.

They may not even know it yet, but they will.

They can’t help themselves. They’ve been caught fawning, made fun of for favoritism, become the subject of their own scrutiny.

Which means they won’t be able to resist.

There’s an old parable about a scorpion that asks a frog to carry him across the lake. The frog is afraid of being stung. The scorpion assures him not to worry, that if he stings the frog, they’ll both drown. Of course, halfway across, that’s exactly what he does. “But why?” the frog asks, as both face death. The scorpion’s answer: I can’t help it. It’s my nature.

It’s the press’s nature to turn on those they most adore. The bigger the buildup, the bigger the letdown. Watch the balloon fill with air. Watch them start pricking holes. Watch the balloon lose air. Wait to see if there’s still a balloon at all in the end.

Mark my words. It’s about to begin.

Read the whole thing.