28 Jul 2011

Drowned Polar Bears and Scientific Misconduct

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Charles Monnett, the wildlife biologist working for the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE), who popularized the notion that Global Warming was causing polar bears to drown and endangering the arctic predators, was placed on administrative leave while he is being investigated for scientific misconduct in relation to his drowning polar bears publication.

We might never have heard of any of this, but Monnett is being passionately defended by Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER), and the staff of that organization is so thoroughly infatuated with its own assumptions and perspective that it cannot even imagine what the material it is disseminating enthusiastically in Monnett’s defense would look like to parties less ideologically committed than themselves.

News Agency story

The Inspector General interview transcript (excerpts) had me, for instance, in stitches.

Disclosing as it does the level of rigor of methodology being employed:

ERIC MAY: Well, actually, since you‟re bringing that up, 18 and, and I‟m a little confused of how many dead or drowned polar bears you did observe, because in the manuscript, you indicate three, and in the poster presentation –

CHARLES MONNETT: No.

ERIC MAY: – you mentioned four.

CHARLES MONNETT: No, now you‟re confusing the, um, the estimator with the, uh, the sightings. There were four drowned bears seen.

ERIC MAY: Okay.

CHARLES MONNETT: Three of which were on transects.

ERIC MAY: Okay.

CHARLES MONNETT: And so for the purpose of that little ratio estimator, we only looked at what we were seeing on transects, because that‟s a – you know, we couldn‟t be very rigorous, but the least we could do is look at the random transects. And so we based, uh, our extrapolation to only bears on transects, because we‟re saying that the transects, the, the swaths we flew, represented I think it was 11 percent of the entire habitat that, you know, that could have had dead polar bears in it.

ERIC MAY: Um-hm [yes].

CHARLES MONNETT: And, um, so by limiting it to the transect bears, then, you know, we could do that ratio estimator and say three is to, um, uh, “x” as, uh, 11 is to 100. I mean, it‟s that kind of thing. You, you‟ve, you‟re nodding like you understand.

LYNN GIBSON: Yeah.

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah, that‟s pretty simple, isn‟t confusing. I mean, it‟s –

ERIC MAY: So, so, so you observed four dead polar bears during MMS –

CHARLES MONNETT: One of which was not on transect.

ERIC MAY: Okay, so that‟s what –

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah. …

ERIC MAY: So I highlighted under here, and we‟ve got the four, and that‟s what –

CHARLES MONNETT: Oh, here you go. Yeah. Well, I‟m pretty confident that it was four. I mean, that‟s, um – uh, look, look what is in the paper. I mean, it should have the – probably the same information that, you know –

ERIC MAY: Well, it –

CHARLES MONNETT: There‟s a table in there, but does it – it has the dead ones in it, doesn‟t it?

ERIC MAY: Well, and I think you, you explain, so this is the portion where you‟re talking about the 25 percent survival rate.

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah.

ERIC MAY: And you‟re talking about four swimming bears and three drowned or dead polar bears.

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah. Yeah, but that‟s because those are on transects.

ERIC MAY: On part of this 11 percent?

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah, it says that right in here and, 11 and –

ERIC MAY: Right, right, but that‟s what you‟re talking about. …

How to do things with statistics.

3 CHARLES MONNETT: The paragraph in the left-hand column. Um, God, I‟ve got people here who are second-guessing my calculations. Um, well, um, we flew transects. That was our basic methodology. They were partially randomized. And we, uh, we looked at a, a map. I think we probably used GIS to do it, and we said that our survey area, if you bound it, is so big.

ERIC MAY: Um-hm [yes].

CHARLES MONNETT: And then we made some assumptions about our swath width, and I think we assumed we could see a, a bear out to a kilometer with any reliability, which mean you‟re looking down like that. And, uh, sometimes you might see more; sometimes you wouldn‟t. Sometimes you can‟t see a whale out that far, so it depends on the water conditions. And so we just said that, um, if you add up, we had 34 north/south transects provide 11 percent coverage of the 630 kilometer-wide study area, and that was just to get our ratio of coverage. And then the area we really were concerned about was just the area where the bears were, so we could ignore the area at that point and just go with a ratio, because we assume that‟s the same, because these things are pretty, uh, they‟re pretty standardized. They were designed to be standardized, so in each bloc – have you seen the blocs? Have you seen our design? It‟s in here.

ERIC MAY: I took – yeah, in, in your study.

CHARLES MONNETT: It‟s right at the beginning here. Um, every map in here has got it on it. Um, there, those are our blocs. And so, uh, this one would have four pairs. This one would have probably three pairs. I don‟t know, there will be later maps. Um, and there, you can see the flights. Uh, well, yeah, they‟re in here. Um, so we‟re flying these transects, and we‟re assuming we can see a certain percentage or a certain, certain distance. Therefore, we can total up the length and the width and come up with an area. And so we calculated that
our coverage was 11 percent, plus or minus a little bit.

ERIC MAY: Okay. And I believe you rounded up, too. It was 10.8 and you rounded up to 11?

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah. Well, that‟s a nothing. Um, yeah, 10.8. And then we said, um, four dead – four swimming polar bears were encountered on these transects, in addition to three.

ERIC MAY: Three dead polar bears?

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah, three dead.

ERIC MAY: Right.

CHARLES MONNETT: But the four swimming were a week earlier.

ERIC MAY: Okay.

CHARLES MONNETT: And, um, then we said if they accurately reflect 11 percent of the bears present so, in other words, they‟re just distributed randomly, so we looked at 11 percent of the area.

ERIC MAY: In that transect?

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah.

ERIC MAY: Right.

CHARLES MONNETT: In, in our, in our area there, um –

ERIC MAY: Right.

CHARLES MONNETT: – and, therefore, we should have seen 11 percent of the bears. Then you just invert that, and you come up with, um, nine times as many. So that‟s where you get the 27, nine times three.

ERIC MAY: Where does the nine come from?

CHARLES MONNETT: Uh, well 11 percent is one-ninth of 100 percent. Nine times 11 is 99 percent. Is that, is that clear? …

LYNN GIBSON: I think what he‟s saying is since there‟s four swimming and three dead, that makes –

ERIC MAY: And three dead.

CHARLES MONNETT: Well, you don‟t count them all together. That doesn‟t have anything to do. You can‟t – that doesn‟t even –

LYNN GIBSON: So you‟re not saying that the seven represent 16 11 percent of the population.

CHARLES MONNETT: They‟re different events.

ERIC MAY: Well, that‟s what you try – we‟re trying to –

LYNN GIBSON: You‟re talking about they‟re separate?

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah, they‟re different events.

ERIC MAY: Right, so explain to us how –

CHARLES MONNETT: On one day – well, let me draw. I, I, I don‟t have confidence that you‟re understanding me here, so let me (inaudible/mixed voices). …

CHARLES MONNETT: It makes me feel more professorial if I write it on the blackboard.

LYNN GIBSON: Okay, go ahead.

CHARLES MONNETT: No, that‟s okay.

ERIC MAY: (Inaudible/mixed voices)

CHARLES MONNETT: If you could see it, I wanted you to see it was why I was going to do it there.

ERIC MAY: (Inaudible/mixed voices)

LYNN GIBSON: We‟re your students today.

CHARLES MONNETT: Uh, well, this has transects on it, doesn‟t it, guys?

LYNN GIBSON: Yes, it does.

CHARLES MONNETT: I mean, look right here. So here‟s our coastline right here, this red thing.

ERIC MAY: Okay, yep.

CHARLES MONNETT: And here‟s our, um, our study area. We go out to whatever it was. I don‟t remember, 70, 71 degrees or something like that. And, um, around each of these things, we survey a tenth of the distance between, basically.

ERIC MAY: Okay.

CHARLES MONNETT: And so if you draw these lines here, and this is – you‟re just going to have to pretend like I did this for all of them. And you calculate the area in here.

LYNN GIBSON: Um-hm [yes].

CHARLES MONNETT: And you total them all, and then you calculate the whole area. This – the area inside here was 11 percent.

LYNN GIBSON: Okay.

CHARLES MONNETT: Okay? Now what we said is that we saw three, three bears in 11 percent.

ERIC MAY: Three dead bears?

CHARLES MONNETT: Three dead, yeah, dead –

ERIC MAY: Right.

CHARLES MONNETT: – in the 11 percent of the habitat. And so you could set up a, um, a ratio here, three is to “x” 25 equals 11 over 100, right? And so you end up with – you can cross-multiply. You know algebra?

ERIC MAY: Um-hm [yes], yeah.

CHARLES MONNETT: You can cross-multiply. Okay, so you end up with 300 equals 11x, and I am sure that that‟s – equals 27, okay?

ERIC MAY: Right, right, got that.

CHARLES MONNETT: And if you stick four in here instead, you end up with –

ERIC MAY: Thirty-six.

CHARLES MONNETT: – whatever that number was, yeah, 36. Now, um, those numbers aren‟t related, except we made the further
assumption, which is implicit to the analysis. Seems obvious to me. We went out there one week, and we saw four swimming on the transect, which we estimated could have been as many as 36.

LYNN GIBSON: Correct.

CHARLES MONNETT: If we correct for the area. And we went out there later, a week to two weeks later, and then we saw the dead ones, the three dead ones in the same area, which could have been 27. And then we said let‟s make the further assumption that – and this, this isn‟t in the paper, but it‟s implicit to this aument –

ERIC MAY: Um-hm [yes].

CHARLES MONNETT: – that right after we saw these bears swimming, this storm came in and caught them offshore, all right? And so if, um, if you assume that the, the, the 36 all were exposed to the storm, and then we went back and we saw tentially 27 of them, that gives you your 25 percent survival rate. Now that‟s, um, statistically, um, irrelevant. I mean, it, it‟s not statistical. It‟s just an argument. It‟s for, it‟s for the sake of discussion. See, right here, “Discussion.”

ERIC MAY: Um-hm [yes].

CHARLES MONNETT: That‟s what you do in discussions is you throw things out, um, for people to think about. And so what we said is, look, uh, we saw four. We saw a whole bunch swimming, but if you want to compare them, then let‟s do this little ratio estimator and correct for the percentage of the area surveyed. And just doing that, then there might have been as many as 27 bears out there that were dead. There might have been as many as 36, plus or minus. There could have been 50. I don‟t know. But the way we were posing it was that it‟s serious, because it‟s not just four. It‟s probably a lot more. And then we said that with the further assumption, you know, that the bears were exposed or, you know, the ones we‟re measuring later that are carcasses out there, it looks like a lot of them, you know, didn‟t survive, so – but it‟s, it‟s discussion, guys. I mean, it‟s not in the results. …

The reliability of the calculations used and the scrupulous oversight of the peer-review process.

ERIC MAY: So combining the three dead polar bears and the four alive bears is a mistake?

CHARLES MONNETT: No, it‟s not a mistake. It‟s just not a, a, a real, uh, rigorous analysis. And a whole bunch of peer reviewers and a journal, you know –

ERIC MAY: Did they go through – I mean, did they do the calculations as you just did with us?

CHARLES MONNETT: Well, I assume they did. That‟s their purpose.

ERIC MAY: Okay. Right, and that‟s – again, that‟s why I was asking peer review.

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah.

ERIC MAY: Did they do that with that particular section of your manuscript?

CHARLES MONNETT: Well, I don‟t, I don‟t remember anybody doing the calculations but, um, uh, there weren‟t any huge objections. There weren‟t a – let‟s put it this way, there weren‟t sufficient objections for the journal editor to ask us to take it out.

ERIC MAY: Right. Well, let me, let me read you what – the four bears – and representing what we were just talking about, this section.

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah.

ERIC MAY: So just let me, let me read what I have here, okay?

CHARLES MONNETT: Okay.

ERIC MAY: “If four swimming bears, if four bears represent 11 percent of the population of bears swimming before the storm,” –

CHARLES MONNETT: Um-hm [yes].

ERIC MAY: – okay? “Then 36 bears were likely swimming.”

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah, maybe, I mean –

ERIC MAY: Okay, but I mean –

CHARLES MONNETT: No, we didn‟t say “likely.” I think we said “possibly,” or did you say “likely” or –?

ERIC MAY: Well, or this – again, as you just stated earlier, this is Discussion, so –

CHARLES MONNETT: I‟d be surprised if we said “likely,” but mostly we were saying “possibly.”

ERIC MAY: Okay, so let me – let, let me continue, so –

CHARLES MONNETT: Okay.

ERIC MAY: – so you have that. “If three bears represent 11 percent of the population of bears that may have died” –

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah.

ERIC MAY: – right?

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah.

ERIC MAY: I think those are your words in your manu- – “may have died.”

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah.

ERIC MAY: “ – as a result of this storm, then 27 bears were likely drowned.” Okay, so far, so good?

CHARLES MONNETT: Well, if I used “likely.” I don‟t know if I did. …

And, then, the interview really gets humorous. “I mean, the storm had nothing to do with it!”

ERIC MAY: Isn‟t that stretching it a bit, though, saying – making that conclusion that no dead polar bears were observed during these years, and then, all of a sudden, 2003, you guys are – you observe dead polar bears?

CHARLES MONNETT: I don‟t think so.

ERIC MAY: Why?

CHARLES MONNETT: Well, if you ask me, I would know, I mean, what I saw, I mean, if I saw something weird like that.

ERIC MAY: So as a scientist, if another scientist made these conclusions based on the information, you would be okay with that as a peer reviewer?

CHARLES MONNETT: Well, yeah, I would, I mean, if, you know, if they told me that. They keep notes. I mean, they did this – every, everything like we do, so –.

ERIC MAY: And that‟s a, that‟s a – and it‟s a stretch, isn‟t it, though, to make that statement?

CHARLES MONNETT: Well, no, I didn‟t think so. I thought that was perfectly reasonable to ask them, since it isn‟t something – remember, the reason it‟s not in the database is because it, it doesn‟t happen. You know, you don‟t see it, so – and there‟s a reason, uh, why it‟s changed, which is in, in, in a lot of the early years, there was a lot of ice out there, and there just weren‟t opportunities for there to be dead bears. You know, bears don‟t drown when there‟s ice all over the place.

ERIC MAY: Well, so let me elaborate what I just asked you. Wouldn‟t you, wouldn‟t you notate that as a – like maybe a – you know, your statement kind of is stretching it, and you would say, “Well, based on my conversations with individuals during these surveys, although they weren‟t supposed to look for dead polar bears, they did not” – I mean, because you‟re making a very broad statement by, by that, saying that no dead polar bears were observed during those years. …

ERIC MAY: Well, and based on, based on what I just said, in terms of the, you know, your statement, would it not make more sense, too, because there was a major windstorm during this period of time, which you do mention, but you didn‟t talk too much about that as in 2004 regarding these dead polar bears.

CHARLES MONNETT: What do you mean (inaudible/mixed voices)?

ERIC MAY: Well, you‟re saying that from 1987 to 2003, there was no dead polar bears.

CHARLES MONNETT: Yeah.

ERIC MAY: Did you discuss the storm conditions during those period, period of years as well? I mean, you‟re extrapolating a lot to make such, you know, scientific findings.\

CHARLES MONNETT: You mean, the storms are increasing up there?

ERIC MAY: No, you‟re saying that there was no dead polar bears during those years.

CHARLES MONNETT: Certainly.

ERIC MAY: Yet in 2004, you, you observed four dead polar bears.

CHARLES MONNETT: Right.

ERIC MAY: Yet you didn‟t really elaborate on why you believe those dead polar bears died or drowned.

CHARLES MONNETT: Well, yeah, we did actually. I don‟t know why you‟re saying that. We‟ve got an extensive section in the paper talking about the, uh, you know, the wind speeds and out there, and we looked into that very hard. And, and we, um, we‟re very, very careful in this manuscript to, um, write it so that it, uh, reflects uncertainty, uncertainty about the extent of what happened, the uncertainty of why it happened, the uncertainty of what it meant in a, in a broader context.

We knew three things: That we had seen a bunch of swimming bears and that that was unusual in the context of the whole data stream. We knew we saw some dead bears, which had not been reported before and that we had been assured, you know, was new to the study. And we saw, uh – we experienced, we were there, a, a, uh, high wind event, which was actually not a, a very severe high – and it wasn‟t, you know, one of the really severe high wind events, but it was enough to shut us down, which meant that there were some pretty good waves breaking, you know, out at sea, which, um, is pretty easy to imagine would be, uh, challenging, you know, for a bear swimming. And a good bit of that, there‟s a whole section in the paper that talks about the windstorm.

ERIC MAY: Okay.

CHARLES MONNETT: Um, right here, there‟s a map, you know, of the wind speeds and all that and, uh, you know, it shows that it just fits right in there. Um –

ERIC MAY: When I was relating to th

CHARLES MONNETT: Well, I don‟t know, we, we had complete confidence in it. Um, people worked extensively with, with the database and, and, uh, so we were totally comfortable with the swimming ones, um, which, you know, were rarely seen. And it‟s a small thing I think to assume that a, um – you know, the person managing the survey would know and – ….

And here comes Jeff Ruch of PEER to the rescue.

1 JEFF RUCH: This is Jeff Ruch. We‟ve been at this for an hour and 45 minutes, and I‟m curious, are we going to get to the allegations of scientific misconduct or, uh, have – is that what we‟ve been doing?

LYNN GIBSON: Actually, a lot of the questions that we‟ve been discussing relate to the allegations.

ERIC MAY: Right.

JEFF RUCH: Um, but, uh, Agent May indicated to, um, Paul that he was going to lay out what the allegations are, and we haven‟t heard them yet, or perhaps we don‟t understand them from this line of questioning.

ERIC MAY: Well, the scientif- – well, scientific misconduct, basically, uh, wrong numbers, uh, miscalculations, uh –

JEFF RUCH: Wrong numbers and calculations?

ERIC MAY: Well, what we‟ve been discussing for the last hour.

JEFF RUCH: So this is it?

CHARLES MONNETT: Well, that‟s not scientific misconduct anyway. If anything, it‟s sloppy. I mean, that‟s not – I mean, I mean, the level of criticism that they seem to have leveled here, scientific misconduct, uh, suggests that we did something deliberately to deceive or to, to change it. Um, I sure don‟t see any indication of that in what you‟re asking me about.

What is downright scary is the way these bozos think that dressing up wildly extravagant theories resting on baseless extrapolations of insignificant anecdotal-level observations with jargon and a few formulae in order to reach preconceived and intensely desired conclusions is perfectly legitimate scientific activity.

If anybody wonders how junk science can become established science and the accepted basis for fabulously costly governmental programs and polices, just look at the work of Dr. Charles Monnett and at PEER.

Al Gore’s Drowning Polar Bear

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22 Feedbacks on "Drowned Polar Bears and Scientific Misconduct"

Lazarus Long

The PEER organization showed its pink stripes a long time ago. Its the public employee incarnation of the Sierra Club and Earth First!.



Donna B.

Since you actually started this post with a cartoon, you MIGHT want to mention and link to the cartoonist, or wherever you took it from. Otherwise it’s stealing, isn’t it.

It’s blurry, but it looks like it’s Chris Bok.



robert

So these scoundrels even have the nerve to name themselves PEER , so as to deceive the unsuspecting public and main stream media with the assumption that that this bogus science is PEER reviewed! How dispicable.



Brian Valentine

Monnett can’t give a straight answer that makes any sense; he goes from defiance to willful obfuscation justified with condescension.

I would guess that he was aware at the time of this interview that greenie pressure groups would capitalize on his “victimization” –

except there are neither data nor corroborating evidence to defend himself from charges of “just plain makin’ stuff up as he saw fit.”

I regret to say that this particular activity does not amount to “scientific misconduct” these days – not when it comes to “global warming,” anyway



SOYLENT GREEN

I’ve always loved that cartoon.
Monnett would be almost as funny, if he hadn’t help flush billions down the Thermageddon drain.
He could make up for some of it…if the bears were hungry.



Doug K

I looked over the original paper and noted that there were years in which the distance between the bear and sea ice was greater than the drowning year (2004). Sea ice extent had nothing to do with drowning.
Odd that the drownings occurred in the last year of a study or the one time they flew after a storm. The paper should have been published as “anecdotes and speculations”.



Brian Valentine

I wonder how he distinguished a “drowned” bear from a bear that just plain died from exposure? That’s not impossible in a protracted storm.

I wonder if “more intense Arctic storms” are consistent with AGW.

I wonder if crypto-greenie pressure group “public employee advocacy groups” are publicly funded.

I wonder if there are similar groups to defend “denialists”

[I suppose not! These people have tobacco lobbies to defend them, don’t they]



Justa Joe

Monnet’s “study” is like the Lancet survey for polar bears. As someone has pointed out already going after Monnet would seem like selective prosecution because this level of BS is so prolific nowadays that Monnet is just using SOP for the activist “scientific” crowd.



Acropolis

Why do they come with this investigation after almost 6 years? Why now?

Why doesn’t anyone tell the guy what scientific misconduct he’s supposed to be guilty of?

Why send criminal investigators to discuss science for which they lack basic knowledge?

Weird stuff. I think I’ll wait for some more info before bringing out the champagne.



Brian Valentine

“Why do they come with this investigation after almost 6 years? Why now?”

– Who said it was “now”? It isn’t clear how long this investigation has been going on

“Why doesn’t anyone tell the guy what scientific misconduct he’s supposed to be guilty of?”

– They’re trying to determine if there is any evidence of that. We don’t have the whole transcript here, but I suppose they told him, there are things you reported that are not corroborated by anything else

“Why send criminal investigators to discuss science for which they lack basic knowledge?”

– You don’t need a PhD in polar biology to find out, if a reported observation was in fact observed. “Did you observe such and such? You told us and you told the public that is exactly what you did.”

And if he did he would have said so. If he made stuff up that he never saw he would double-talk his interlocutors exactly the same way he did.

Making stuff up is scientific misconduct. He was paid to observe things, not to make up things he wanted to see.



Acropolis

Brian, how do you conclude that he made up that he saw those dead polar bears? I don’t believe that this is what he’s accused of.

Are we going to send in criminal investigators who have no scientific background every time we believe a scientist has committed scientific misconduct? Or only for the witches?



Brian Valentine

“Brian, how do you conclude that he made up that he saw those dead polar bears? I don’t believe that this is what he’s accused of.”

He’s accused of something or he wouldn’t have been placed on leave. The only things we know right now are questions he was asked outright and answers from him that don’t make any sense.

“Are we going to send in criminal investigators who have no scientific background every time we believe a scientist has committed scientific misconduct? Or only for the witches?”

A crime is a crime, telling people stuff that’s wrong is a crime when the agency that paid someone to find out something is not told the truth. Every other Federal investigation is carried out in the same way – as for example, Dave Baltimore.

My name is Brian Gregory Valentine. I live in Arlington, Virginia. You either report your name or you don’t get any more responses from me. I don’t talk to people on the phone who don’t identify themselves or any place else for that matter



Acropolis

Scientific misconduct is a crime? That’s new to me.

Brian Gregory Valentine from Arlington, Virginia, good luck with your witch hunt.



Junior chilled by science queries and Never Yet Melted downright astonished | JunkScience Sidebar

[…] Drowned Polar Bears and Scientific Misconduct […]



Ben of Houston

This isn’t a witch hunt. This was a rational investigation of downright sloppy research that has been heavily used for political ends. This wouldn’t pass muster for high school rigor, but it was used to put polar bears on the endangered species list despite a recent five-fold increase in their numbers. The fact that it was “criminal investigators” and not “scientists” should be alarming. The inspector general only has criminal investigators, and anything that is bad enough to be criminal would be blaringly obvious for them to see. You don’t have to be a tailor to see that the emperor has no clothes. You might need some expertise to see if they are poorly made, but that isn’t a problem that this sort of investigation is looking for.



Sam

Acropolis: Even though the criminal investigator was not a “scientist” by your standards, he made Monnett look like an imbecile. Sorry, that’s how I see the (whole) transcript



jrkrideau

@ Doug K

I think what they were suggesting was the combination of ice extent and the storm probably caused the deaths. Certainly, they point out it was not just the swimming distance.

@Sam

Given May could not seem to handle Gr 7 level math and could not seem to understand why 3 dead bears were used in some calculations and 4 in the report I’d say May looks like an utter fool.

See page 38 at 15 for the math problem.

If you are going to investigate scientific malpractice it might be a good idea to send someone with a little scientific knowledge. I was left with the impression May probably would have a problem balancing his cheque book.



eric

So, let me make sure I understand the point of this blog post: You are quoting a long passage that illustrates investigators’ utter lack of comprehension of the research methodology they’re supposed to be investigating for bias, as well as their profound lack of understanding of the statistical methods that are used for analysis — and that’s supposed to make me think MONNETT has “integrity issues”?

Man, you are just grasping at straws, here.



JDZ

Let’s see here. Mr. Monnett sees N dead polar bears. Mr, M., methodologically speaking, projects that a different given area of equivalent size must feature an equivalent quantity of deceased ursines. He assumes that, in years gone by, other researchers working on subjects other than bears, would surely have reported any dead bears they saw as digressions in their studies. And Mr. M. deliberately ignores the potential impact on bears of a major storm. Then, he calculates the impact of AGW on bears. Right!



Eli Rabet

Eric May just fell through the ice



offsenter

I’m not a scientist but what I see in all of the data (at least what is presented here) is an anomaly. Years of no dead polar bears then one year of several (let’s assume the numbers are 100% accurate) and we conclude that everything about global warming hurting the polar bears is true? I would think at the very least a couple more years of study to determine if it is a trend would be called for before making such a claim. Were the dead bears studied at all? Maybe some disease was going through the population that caused them to be disoriented and swim out to sea. A storm comes in and they are too weak to deal with it and you get a bunch of dead polar bears. I know that’s a stretch but without any more investigation of the bears it’s no less a stretch than concluding that it was global warming. Especially as it seems to be a one time event in 2004. Has it been observed since that time? That would have been a open and shut defense. Since it was not brought up I have to assume it hasn’t been observed since.

BTW what makes it a crime is that government agencies use this research to spend Millions of dollars (our dollars) to fix the problem. Since a lot of that money goes to researchers if those same researchers are cooking the books to keep there funding then it’s like they are stealing the money. Think of it that way and it makes the crime a lot more obvious.



Omg

Monnett is complete fool and a complete fraud for taking Tax payer money to produce tripe like this. Then you have zealots posting here backing this BS like imbecile trolls, now that’s funny.



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