14 Mar 2008

Predicting November’s Results

Things look black for Republicans, but Jonah Goldberg explains in a good rap how Hillary will “win by skullduggery and intimidation” and “Obama’s supporters will be vexed.”

This means that at precisely the moment she needs to move right toward the center, she will need to move left to shore up an angry base. In other words, the Democratic Party would nominate the most polarizing candidate possible (roughly half the country already says it will never vote for her), who will have to become even more polarizing in order to appease aggrieved Obama voters.

Meanwhile, she would be facing a GOP candidate with a sterling record of winning the support of moderates, independents and even Democrats. Both McCain and Clinton would probably enter the race with, say, 47 percent of the vote already in their pockets. So, who would be better positioned to win a majority of the undecided middle-of-the-roaders? Hillary Clinton, the scandal-plagued Assassin of Hope, or John McCain, Mr. Bipartisan War Hero?

I think he’s perfectly right. I’m not eager to see McCain win, but the way things are playing out, John McCain looks to have an extremely good chance. Pity.

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