10 Jul 2008

Obama Ahead in July, Looks Bad for Him


Don Surber points out that July poll advantages often melt away by November.

At this point in 2004, Democratic Sen. John Kerry had a 7-point lead in the Gallup while Democratic Sen. Barack Obama has a 2-point lead.


The Gallup Poll looked at the last few elections and found that the leader in July won only 3 of the 9 contested races since 1948.

Presidents Dewey, Humphrey, Dukakis and Kerry had leads of 11, 5, 6 and 7, respectively, at this point in their races.

In fact, in July 2004, Kerry had a majority over the incumbent, 51-44. …

Obama now leads Republican Sen. John McCain 46-44 in the Gallup.

Curiously, in 10 of the last 12 races, the Republican fared better in November than he polled in July. The two exceptions are President Clinton in 1992 and Vice President Al Gore in 2000.

Polls in July are nice to chat about around the pool while sipping iced tea (if you are a Democrat) or popping open a beer around the grill (if you are a Republican) or ignoring (if you are an independent).

Or fighting the malaria with a gin-and-tonic if you are a drunk.


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