04 Mar 2022

Good, But Pessimistic, War Analysis

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I hope he’s wrong, but I doubt he is.

HT: Vanderleun.

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Funktacular

Not bad, but he’s still missing a lot. Indeed, every Russian f*ck up is just a brilliant move in disguise. A few points:

1). The Russians were clearly planning on a successful decapitation strike and much less resistance. A huge intelligence failure for the vaunted FSB / GRU.

2). The Russians did launch a series of air and cruise missile strikes that achieved little. If they weren’t going for shock & awe, why waste the ammo? Why no more strikes?

3). Russian strategic offensive doctrine calls for three operational waves in echelon. The second wave should have followed the first within 72 hours. It’s a week later, and they’re still just arriving. Clearly, there were no pre-positioned supplies for them. Indicates that they weren’t expecting to be deployed so soon.

There’s a lot more. That said, the Russians still have the larger army and the larger economy.



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