21 Dec 2007

Global Warming: A Theory Which Cannot Account for the Facts

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BBC Science Correspondent David Whitehouse, in the New Statesman, observes that the key problem with the theory of Global Warming and climate projection models is that Global Warming has stopped, and the theory and the models can’t explain why.

‘The fact is that the global temperature of 2007 is statistically the same as 2006 and every year since 2001’

Global warming stopped? Surely not. What heresy is this? Haven’t we been told that the science of global warming is settled beyond doubt and that all that’s left to the so-called sceptics is the odd errant glacier that refuses to melt?

Aren’t we told that if we don’t act now rising temperatures will render most of the surface of the Earth uninhabitable within our lifetimes? But as we digest these apocalyptic comments, read the recent IPCC’s Synthesis report that says climate change could become irreversible. Witness the drama at Bali as news emerges that something is not quite right in the global warming camp.

With only few days remaining in 2007, the indications are the global temperature for this year is the same as that for 2006 – there has been no warming over the 12 months.

But is this just a blip in the ever upward trend you may ask? No.

The fact is that the global temperature of 2007 is statistically the same as 2006 as well as every year since 2001. Global warming has, temporarily or permanently, ceased. Temperatures across the world are not increasing as they should according to the fundamental theory behind global warming – the greenhouse effect. Something else is happening and it is vital that we find out what or else we may spend hundreds of billions of pounds needlessly. …

It was a pity that the delegates at Bali didn’t discuss this or that the recent IPCC Synthesis report did not look in more detail at this recent warming standstill. Had it not occurred, or if the flatlining of temperature had occurred just five years earlier we would have no talk of global warming and perhaps, as happened in the 1970’s, we would fear a new Ice Age! Scientists and politicians talk of future projected temperature increases. But if the world has stopped warming what use these projections then?

Some media commentators say that the science of global warming is now beyond doubt and those who advocate alternative approaches or indeed modifications to the carbon dioxide greenhouse warming effect had lost the scientific argument. Not so.

Certainly the working hypothesis of CO2 induced global warming is a good one that stands on good physical principles but let us not pretend our understanding extends too far or that the working hypothesis is a sufficient explanation for what is going on.

I have heard it said, by scientists, journalists and politicians, that the time for argument is over and that further scientific debate only causes delay in action. But the wish to know exactly what is going on is independent of politics and scientists must never bend their desire for knowledge to any political cause, however noble.

The science is fascinating, the ramifications profound, but we are fools if we think we have a sufficient understanding of such a complicated system as the Earth’s atmosphere’s interaction with sunlight to decide. We know far less than many think we do or would like you to think we do. We must explain why global warming has stopped.

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10 Feedbacks on "Global Warming: A Theory Which Cannot Account for the Facts"

Scott D

I have found the same frustration with random number tables. Just when you point to a definite pattern, the next few digits break it. The most effective solution has been to stop looking at the table and declare the pattern “settled”.



John D

An examination of the temperature plot of the Vostok ice core from Antarctica shows that the last half-million years or so were characterized by abrupt warming periods followed more gradual cooling trends. If a similar climate pattern were to continue, we should now be seeing a gradual cooling pattern that develops into the next glacial event. Even if CO2 concentrations affect climate – and there are observations to be made about that in the Vostok ice as well – the modern levels caused by human generation of CO2 at most are temporarily staving off the next ice age.



sue

you are an idiot whoever you are. you are narrow minded and arrogant and should wake up and smell the coffee. whateve yo dog



Carl

Shut up Sue.



Carl

There is so much evidence that both humans and the climate itself are changing the world. Sure, CO2 emissions by automobiles and vehicles contribute to the overall amount in the air, but the Earth is changing itself. It has before and is doing it again; you can’t blame humans entirely.



sue

no carl don’t start. there are soo many reasons to beleive that global warming is actually happening and people like you are the reson we are gonna die!!!!!!!!!!!!!yeah i said it. im sure you are gasping right now and you should be because we should all save the world and RECYCLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!or elsee



ty

FREAKS



someone smart

ok, guys we are going to see what happens eventually, so you better just wait till then



Ashley evans

I think global warming is going to happen but you cannot be sure. HUmans have had a great part in cuasing global warming iof it is going to happen. Trnsportation and enrgy/electricity generation are the 2 main factors of global warming and himans are to blame for that. but the worlds climate has been rising and lowering for many years but its just that it has sunndeny got steeper so the theory of gloabl warming has happened. And it mght wel be true but cannot be proven until it happens.



LilTrumpetor007

The world is/was warming up, what is causing it to warm up is the big question. When you look at scientific graphs, temperatures have been rising and falling for millions of years. Although there werent 6billion people on the earth back then, the CO2 we produce is nearly an insignificant amount compared to the amount that the earth produces itself. We cannot take all the blame. It is the natural cycle of the earth, although humans may be exaggerating the effects. Whatever is causing it it cannot be claimed a settled science, and should be based purely on scince and not influnced by politics.



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