24 Aug 2012

University of Colorado Model Predicts Romney Win


A University of Colorado election model with a strong recond of predictive success forecasts a November loss for Obama predicting Obama winning 218 electoral votes versus 320 for Mitt Romney. The model predicts all swing seats to vote Republican including Colorado, Ohio and Florida.

Daily Mail:

A model which has foretold the correct results of the Electoral College selections in U.S. Presidential elections since 1980, has predicted a loss for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.

The forecast was made by two professors at the University of Colorado who used economic data and unemployment figures from each state to predict a Republican win come November.

Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry’s study predicts 218 electoral votes for President Obama and 320 for Romney with the Republican candidate winning every seat currently considered to be on the fence. …

The professors’ analysis concluded that Romney would take home all swing states including Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado. …

4 Feedbacks on "University of Colorado Model Predicts Romney Win"

cindy ryan

I hope he is right.


I wonder if his model included the inevitable (sooner or later) “fixing” of the computer voting machines.

Return to a paper ballot


Historical models depend on the assumption that the factors that drive them have the same effect that they always have. The reason economic and unemployment data have been such strong predictors in the past is that when the economy was bad, lots of people were REALLY hurting as they desperately sought work. That’s not true as much today. We are distributing so many government checks to people that being out of work is not nearly as traumatic as it was. Unemployment is 10.7% in California right now and the state is experiencing its worst ever farm labor shortage. Why do hard work when you can hang around and cash a check? People no longer panic when they see high unemployment — just like they never have in Europe. We complain that Obama is turning us into a European welfare state. It’s already happened.

Raymond Gallup

I hope it works out this way. God is looking out for the US if true because 4 more years of Obama will be a disaster. Romney will pull our country back from the brink of a gigantic sinkhole, that Obama has put us in.


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