Even Obamacare supporter Harold Pollack now realizes that judgement time is coming to this country concerning the factual results of the Obama Administration’s and the democrat party’s great leap to the left and their nationalizing healthcare, some one sixth of the American economy.

I suspect the worst backlash won’t actually come from uninsured or under-insured people who actually buy coverage on the new exchanges. Backlash will come from people with pretty crummy jobs who hear that their hours are cut back. Backlash will come from people with limited employer-based coverage who face higher premiums or encounter other changes such as disliked wellness provisions. Some will look across the fence at decent plans on the new exchanges, only to discover that they can’t receive subsidies if they spurn their employer’s coverage.

Thousands of employers will blame “ObamaCare” for whatever unpopular moves they impose their workers. It’s the obvious play. In many cases, this blame will be mostly or entirely misplaced. Other times, the blame will be justified, reflecting glitches or unintended consequences of the new law. Either way, many workers will believe what their employers tell them. Millions of workers with relatively modest incomes will see their lives getting a little worse when they were hoping that health reform would make their lives a little better. …

At long last, we’re nearing put-up or shut-up time for the new law. ACA’s political fortunes will rest on whether it tangibly improves peoples’ lives. If it does that, the politics will take care of itself. If it doesn’t, Republicans won’t need Avik’s columns or anyone else’s to knock it down.