[W]e are raising the total [from +44] to +55 net Republican seats. We consider 47 to be in the ballpark still, but more of a floor than a ceiling.
Which results, if correct, would produce a 233 Republican — 202 Democrat House of Representatives.
For the Senate:
The Crystal Ball has operated within a very narrow range all year. When others were projecting GOP Senate gains of just +3-4, we were already at +6. Depending on the primary results and other circumstances, weâ€™ve landed between +6 and +9 in the last half-year. We have never gotten to +10, the number needed for Republican takeover of the Senate, and we do not do so in this final forecast either. To us, the number of GOP gains looks to be +8. Ten was always a stretch. …
In our pre-Labor Day analysis, however, we noted a historical anomaly: Since World War II, the House has changed parties six times, and in every case, the Senate switched, too. In five of the six cases, most prognosticators did not see the Senate turnover coming. (Only in 2006 did some guess correctly, including the Crystal Ball.) So if we have a big surprise on election night, this could be it, despite the pre-election odds against it.
Their predictions also have the GOP gaining 8 or 9 governorships, and at least a dozen additional state legislative chambers.
We House viewers have been wondering where the lovely Olivia Wilde went.
Well, now we know. She’s been making a Sci Fi-themed political advertisement for MoveOn.org, playing a rebel from the year 2050 urging liberals to vote in order to prevent a dystopian Republican future.
It’s daft, but very funny. Go President Palin! Teach that Pacific Ocean a lesson.
(It shouldn’t be surprising that Olivia Wilde is a commie. Not only is she a representative of Hollywood, her real name is Olivia Jane Cockburn. Yes, Alexander Cockburn is her uncle, and Claude Cockburn was her grandfather. Stalin was godfather for most of the older members of her family.)
National Review Campaign Spot blogger Jim Geraghty interviews the Jedi master who trained Karl Rove: political mastermind Obi-Wan Kenobi.
Obi-Wan: First, THE FADING-GOP WAVE SCENARIO: This one is easy. If the generic GOP lead starts to fade and this continues through the weekend to a few points or nearly even on Election Day, then the GOP makes gains in the House but fails to take control, and gains three or four in the Senate. (With disappointments in places like Pennsylvania, Colorado, California and maybe Nevada.)
Second, THE OKAY WAVE SCENARIO: Polling stays about where it is â€” with strong generic GOP lead (5 to 9 percentage points or more) as GOP leads in many Senate races stay roughly the same; in places like Washington, California, and Connecticut, Democrat candidates either break 50 percent or keep a steady gap or widen it. Still, a wave election, with House gains of up to 50 or 60. But GOP fails at Senate control by two to four seats, which shows that (1) to some extent the Democratsâ€™ strategy of individualizing Senate races with harsh negative attacks worked or (2) voters just chose to channel their anger at the Obama administration in their House voting but were discriminating â€“ picking and choosing â€” in the Senate races.
Third, THE HAPPY-TIMES WAVE SCENARIO: Polling stays about where it is â€” with strong generic GOP lead between 5 and 9 and GOP Senate candidates in Washington, California, and Connecticut still within reach (6 to 9 points down). There you would see House gains of up to 50 or 60 or a bit beyond, and itâ€™s a wave election that really does lift all boats and the GOP takes the Senate by a vote or two.
Fourth, THE SUPERWAVE: House gains of 60 to 90, even beyond. Senate races carried along as GOP ends up with three- or four-vote margin in Senate. …
Jim: You sound like you think the Superwave is upon us.
Obi-Wan: See, there you go getting pushy again. How can you predict something that hasnâ€™t happened before?
That great mind Joe Biden, in the course of addressing a $1000-a-plate democrat fundraiser in New York today, predicted that their party would win next Tuesday and retain control of both the House and the Senate.
Biden also defended the liberal cult of statism, asserting:
â€œEvery single great idea that has marked the 21st century, the 20th century and the 19th century has required government vision and government incentive,â€ he said. â€œIn the middle of the Civil War you had a guy named Lincoln paying people $16,000 for every 40 miles of track they laid across the continental United States. â€¦ No private enterprise would have done that for another 35 years.â€
As the democrat party’s November Appointment in Samarra draws near, the left has been furiously discussing how voter dissatisfaction and the Tea Party Movement is all the nefarious culmination of a diabolical plot presided over by scheming capitalists who artificially created the whole thing with their funding.
Andrew Ferguson, in this month’s Commentary, has a good deal of fun applying Richard Hofstadter’s paranoia meme to liberalism’s latest efforts at self gratification.
Over the past 30 years, Charles and David Koch, owners of a Kansas-based family business called Koch Industries, have given hundreds of millions of dollars to organizations that advance their political views. Those views can be described as unevenly conservative and generally libertarian (pro-gay marriage, anti-ObamaCare). The donations are readily observable in foundation tax records posted on the Internet, as all such transactions are, and the brothers themselves have made many public appearances on behalf of the think tanks and magazines they fund, given speeches and media interviews, issued statements of support, sat on boardsâ€”even, in Davidâ€™s case, made a hopeless and expensive run for the vice presidency on the Libertarian Party ticket in 1980.
Oddly, it took a while for the Inspector Clouseaus of the American left to smell a rat. And in fairness, it should be said that hiding in plain sight can often be the most sinister form of disguise for billionaires like the Kochs, the tricky bastards. About a year ago, the alarming rise of the Tea Parties inspired researchers at a website called ThinkProgress to start Googling. Among their discoveries, breathlessly reported, was the news that one of the Kochsâ€™ foundations had funded Americans for Prosperity, a group instrumental in the Tea Party movement.
ThinkProgress presented its story as a scoop the mainstream press was afraid to touch. There the Kochs stood at last, exposed to broad daylight in the public square, where theyâ€™d been all along. ThinkProgress dubbed them â€œThe Billionaires Behind the Hate.â€ We may never know what tipped off the sleuths to the Kochsâ€™ political activities, but David Koch in particular must be kicking himself: I knew I shouldnâ€™t have given that speech to 2,000 people in that hotel ballroom at the Americans for Prosperity convention! And the interviews I gave to New York magazine, and the Timesâ€”what a fool I was! …
One mark of the paranoid style in American politics, Richard Hofstadter wrote in his famous essay, is its concern with â€œfactuality,â€ a piling up of random details to create a coherence that reality itself canâ€™t provide. Journalism of a certain sort becomes a convenient instrument of the paranoid partisan. â€œThe paranoidâ€™s interpretation of history,â€ Hofstadter wrote, â€œis distinctly personal: decisive events are not taken as part of the stream of history, but as the consequences of someoneâ€™s will,â€ an â€œamoral supermanâ€ who â€œmanufactures the mechanism of history, or tries to deflect the normal course of history in an evil way.â€
With the Kochs, the American left gets two amoral supermen in one. Mayerâ€™s article, and the larger campaign itâ€™s a part of, is meant not only to alarm its audience but to soothe it as well. Any Democrat unnerved by the rise of the Tea Party movement will find it comforting to learn that itâ€™s a giant confidence trick. The belief requires both a deep cynicism about oneâ€™s fellow citizens and a touching credulity about the ease with which they can be manipulated. All those angry, badly dressed people shouting into megaphones on TV: theyâ€™re not evil, theyâ€™re just stupid.
Vote for them anyway, P.J. O’Rourke advises. The alternative is democrats, and they hate our guts.
Perhaps youâ€™re having a tiny last minute qualm about voting Republican. Take heart. And take the House and the Senate. Yes, there are a few flakes of dander in the fair tresses of the GOPâ€™s crowning gloryâ€”an isolated isolationist or two, a hint of gold buggery, and Christine Oâ€™Donnell announcing that sheâ€™s not a witch. (I ask you, has Hillary Clinton ever cleared this up?) Fret not over Republican peccadilloes such as the Tea Party finding the single, solitary person in Nevada who couldnâ€™t poll ten to one against Harry Reid. Better to have a few cockeyed mutts running the dog pound than Michael Vick.
I take it back. Using the metaphor of Michael Vick for the Democratic party leadership implies they are people with a capacity for moral redemption who want to call good plays on the legislative gridiron. They arenâ€™t. They donâ€™t. The reason is simple. They hate our guts.
They donâ€™t just hate our Republican, conservative, libertarian, strict constructionist, family values guts. They hate everybodyâ€™s guts. And they hate everybody who has any.
The inimitable Frank Fleming explains why the democrats are inevitably going to get massacred in the upcoming election.
During the second term of the Bush presidency people just got fed up with Republicans. They were idiots, they were no good at the whole fiscal conservatism thing (which is sort of the whole point of them), we had these wars that seemed to be going nowhere, and the economy was beginning to fail. They sucked, and people were sick and tired of them.
Thus people turned to the Democrats. And Obama.
Letâ€™s just say they also sucked.
AMERICANS: â€œSo, the economy is pretty bad and thereâ€™s high employment. You think you can do something about that?â€
DEMOCRATS AND OBAMA: â€œWe can spend a trillion dollars we donâ€™t have on pork and stuff.â€
AMERICANS: â€œNo â€¦ thatâ€™s not what we want. Weâ€™d really like you not to do that.â€
DEMOCRATS: â€œYouâ€™re stupid. Weâ€™re doing it anyway.â€
AMERICANS: â€œThatâ€™s not going to help us get jobs!â€
DEMOCRATS: â€œSure it will; millions of them â€¦ though they may be invisible. Youâ€™ll have to trust us they exist. And guess what else weâ€™ll do: Weâ€™ll create a giant new government program to take over health care.â€
AMERICANS: â€œThat has nothing to do with jobs!â€
DEMOCRATS: â€œWe donâ€™t care about that anymore. We really want a giant new health care program. Weâ€™re sure youâ€™ll love it.â€
AMERICANS: â€œDonâ€™t pass that bill. You hear me? Absolutely do not pass that bill.â€
DEMOCRATS: â€œBelieve me; youâ€™ll love it. It has â€¦ well, I donâ€™t know what exactly is in the bill, but weâ€™re sure itâ€™s great.â€
AMERICANS: â€œListen to me: DO. NOT. PASS. THAT. BILL.â€
DEMOCRATS: â€œYouâ€™re not the boss of me! Weâ€™re doing it anyway!â€
AMERICANS: â€œLook what you did! Now the economy is way worse, weâ€™re even deeper in debt, and we have a bunch of new laws we donâ€™t want!â€
DEMOCRATS: â€œYouâ€™re racist.â€
AMERICANS: â€œWha â€¦ How is that racist?â€
DEMOCRATS: â€œNow youâ€™re getting violent! Stop being violent and racist, you ignorant hillbillies! And remember to vote Democrat in November.â€
So the Democrats sucked. But not just plain old, usual politician sucked, but epic levels of suck where itâ€™s hard to find an analogue in human history that conveys the same level of suckitude. It was sheer incompetence plus arrogance â€” and those things do not complement each other well. Weâ€™re talking sucking that distorts time and space like a black hole.
Itâ€™s Godzilla-smashing-through-a-city level of suck â€” but a really patronizing Godzilla who says youâ€™re just too stupid and hateful to see all the buildings heâ€™s saved or created as he smashes everything apart. Or, to use Obamaâ€™s favorite analogy, you have a car stuck in ditch, so you call the mechanic, but the only tool he brings with him is a sledgehammer. And then he smashes your car to pieces and charges you $100,000 for his service. Finally, he calls you racist for complaining. Obama and the Democrats have been so awful, itâ€™s hard for the human brain to even comprehend.
But the Democrats will counter that the Republicans also suck. And while this is true, itâ€™s not really going to help them. As I pointed out before, both a dog incessantly barking and a zombie apocalypse are things that everyone would agree suck. Yet no one during a zombie apocalypse, while hiding out in a boarded up mall, would turn to the other survivors and say, â€œWe donâ€™t want to kill all the zombies; then weâ€™d have to go back to being woken up at night by that annoying dog next door.â€ But this is the best argument the Democrats can come up with.
The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports on the latest manifestation of the influence of Ayn Rand’s 1957 novel on contemporary American politics.
U.S. Senate candidates Ron Johnson and U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold clashed sharply Monday night on Ayn Rand’s famous novel “Atlas Shrugged,” about an economy crumbling under the weight of government intrusion and regulations. …
While the two went back and forth on issues such as the economy, Social Security, the health care law and the war in Afghanistan, the most spirited discussion came from a book that was written in 1957 and remains popular among some conservatives and people who espouse limited government.
Rand’s book describes a dystopian America where the leading innovators leave society out of frustration with rules and regulations. It is a book that Johnson says he admires and has been a driving force in his political philosophy.
Asked by a panelist about the book, Johnson said “Atlas” represents the producers of the world, while “Shrugged” represents how overburdened the producers are with rules, regulations and taxes.
“It’s a warning of what could happen to America,” Johnson said. “When you hear people talk about a tipping point, that’s what we’re concerned about.â€‚.â€‚.â€‚. We have more people who are net beneficiaries of government than are actually paying into the system. That’s a very serious thing to think about.”
“I believe in the community,” Feingold responded. “I believe in the community of Wisconsin. .â€‚.â€‚. You believe the producers are a very special group of people. I guess they’re better than the rest of us. When things aren’t going their way, you take the position that people shouldn’t have unemployment compensation because you have the view they don’t want to work.”
Johnson said he wasn’t against the minimum wage and the extension of unemployment benefits. He said the fact that Feingold was talking about that showed that the stimulus bill was a failure.
“The last thing we should be doing is increase taxes on anybody in this recovery,” Johnson said.
After the debate, Feingold said Johnson “had a very narrow view of who actually does the work in society. I think everybody is working hard.”
It sounds a lot like Hank Reardon debating Wesley Mouch.
Mark Halperin, in Time, describes just how bad the Chosen One’s situation has become.
Barack Obama is being politically crushed in a vise. From above, by elite opinion about his competence. From below, by mass anger and anxiety over unemployment. And it is too late for him to do anything about this predicament until after November’s elections.
With the exception of core Obama Administration loyalists, most politically engaged elites have reached the same conclusions: the White House is in over its head, isolated, insular, arrogant and clueless about how to get along with or persuade members of Congress, the media, the business community or working-class voters. This view is held by Fox News pundits, executives and anchors at the major old-media outlets, reporters who cover the White House, Democratic and Republican congressional leaders and governors, many Democratic business people and lawyers who raised big money for Obama in 2008, and even some members of the Administration just beyond the inner circle.