In the early hours of November 4th, 2020, Democratic candidate Joe Biden received several major “vote spikes” that substantially — and decisively — improved his electoral position in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Much skepticism and uncertainty surrounds these “vote spikes.” Critics point to suspicious vote counting practices, extreme differences between the two major candidates’ vote counts, and the timing of the vote updates, among other factors, to cast doubt on the legitimacy of some of these spikes. While data analysis cannot on its own demonstrate fraud or systemic issues, it can point us to statistically anomalous cases that invite further scrutiny.
This is one such case: Our analysis finds that a few key vote updates in competitive states were unusually large in size and had an unusually high Biden-to-Trump ratio. We demonstrate the results differ enough from expected results to be cause for concern.
With this report, we rely only on publicly available data from the New York Times to identify and analyze statistical anomalies in key states. Looking at 8,954 individual vote updates (differences in vote totals for each candidate between successive changes to the running vote totals, colloquially also referred to as “dumps” or “batches”), we discover a remarkably consistent mathematical property: there is a clear inverse relationship between difference in candidates’ vote counts and and the ratio of the vote counts. (In other words, it’s not surprising to see vote updates with large margins, and it’s not surprising to see vote updates with very large ratios of support between the candidates, but it is surprising to see vote updates which are both).
The significance of this property will be further explained in later sections of this report. Nearly every vote update, across states of all sizes and political leanings follow this statistical pattern. A very small number, however, are especially aberrant. Of the seven vote updates which follow the pattern the least, four individual vote updates — two in Michigan, one in Wisconsin, and one in Georgia — were particularly anomalous and influential with respect to this property and all occurred within the same five hour window.
In particular, we are able to quantify the extent of compliance with this property and discover that, of the 8,954 vote updates used in the analysis, these four decisive updates were the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 7th most anomalous updates in the entire data set. Not only does each of these vote updates not follow the generally observed pattern, but the anomalous behavior of these updates is particularly extreme. That is, these vote updates are outliers of the outliers.
The four vote updates in question are:
An update in Michigan listed as of 6:31AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 141,258 votes for Joe Biden and 5,968 votes for Donald Trump
An update in Wisconsin listed as 3:42AM Central Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 143,379 votes for Joe Biden and 25,163 votes for Donald Trump
A vote update in Georgia listed at 1:34AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 136,155 votes for Joe Biden and 29,115 votes for Donald Trump
An update in Michigan listed as of 3:50AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 54,497 votes for Joe Biden and 4,718 votes for Donald Trump
This report predicts what these vote updates would have looked like, had they followed the same pattern as the vast majority of the 8,950 others. We find that the extents of the respective anomalies here are more than the margin of victory in all three states — Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia — which collectively represent forty-two electoral votes.
Lol! He's right.
I used info via Social Security Death Index on "Your Voter Information" on the Michigan SoS website.
William was born in 1902, died in Detroit at age 82 in 1984.
He applied for an absentee ballot on 9/11, submitted it on 9/19.
— Peoples_Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 5, 2020
Da Yoopers Tourist Trap in Ishpeming, Michigan houses a World’s Record item…the world’s largest working rifle, which they have named “Big Ernie”.
It’s 35 feet long and weighs in at 400 pounds.
HT: Karen L. Myers.
In the prosperous home of the elite University of Michigan:
5th Ward councilmen Chip Smith and Chuck Warpehoski were joined by 1st Ward council members Sumi Kailasapathy and Jason Frenzel in taking a knee when it came time to recite the Pledge of Allegiance before the city council meeting, M Live reported.
Warpehoski said his decision to kneel was an â€œact of attention, concern and respect.â€
â€œI canâ€™t speak to what is in each personâ€™s heart, but for me to â€˜take a kneeâ€™ is an act of attention, of concern, and of respect,â€ Warpehoski wrote on his website ahead of Mondayâ€™s meeting and also stated at the meeting. â€œAnd it is in that spirit that I take a knee at tonightâ€™s City Council meeting: out of respect for the aspiration that we be a nation â€˜with liberty and justice for all,â€™ with full attention that we fall short of that ideal in many ways, and with humble dedication to continue to work that the promise of the pledge may be fulfilled.â€
Kailasapathy said during the meeting that she was kneeling for the pledge in order to demonstrate she was committed to upholding Democratic values.
â€œFor me, taking a knee is also showing solidarity with the group of people who have been doing this at the national level,â€ she said.
The demonstrations reflect the NFL national anthem protests that began last year. Former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick began kneeling during the national anthem last season in order to draw attention to racial injustice. Some other players in the NFL followed suit, but it didnâ€™t become a national phenomenon until late September of this year after President Donald Trump said NFL owners should not tolerate kneeling during the national anthem.
Meanwhile incoal mining country, Josh Stowers delivers the national anthem for his workmates before his shift underground in West Virginia every day:
â€œIâ€™ve been tying flies since 1917. I havenâ€™t caught a fish on a baited hook for the last 35 years. I use the fly only.â€
â€” Len Halladay
Where I come from, we never used Golden Pheasant tippet fibers for the tail, only mixed hackle.
Tail: Grizzly and brown hackle fibers mixed.
Body: Dark gray fur dubbing.
Wing: Grizzly hackle tips.
Hackle: Brown and Grizzly mixed.
10-year-old Sonja Moehle found the skeleton of a representative of the extinct Eastern subspecies of Elk (Cervus canadensis canadensis).
Eastern Elk were larger.
The Eastern elk subspecies existed in North America until 1877, when the last known specimen was shot in Pennsylvania. It was noted by scientists as being much larger than the elk species of today, boasting racks as long as six feet in length. Eastern bull elk could stand as tall as 60 inches at the shoulder and weigh more than a thousand pounds.
Not everyone believes they are totally extinct, however. It is suspected that some form of the elk subspecies still lives onâ€”in New Zealand. Former US President Theodore Roosevelt gifted a small herd of elk to New Zealand in 1905. Experts believe that the herd included several individuals of Eastern elk, which may have eventually begun breeding with local animals.
Sonja and her father have started a Kickstarter funding page to raise enough money for DNA-testing of her Elk.
For the 5k at the Venetian Festival in Charlevoix, [Michigan] Lcpl [Lance Corporal] Kerr opted to run the event wearing boots and utes [utilities] and carrying a ruck sack. Several minutes after the other Marines he was with had finished, Lcpl Kerr still had not crossed the line. They feared his extreme level of motivation may have caused him injury and/or fatigue resulting in him dropping out of the race. Moments before they ran back through the course to recover their fellow Marine, Lcpl Kerr came around the last turn along with this small boy. The boy had become separated from those who he had started the race with. He asked Lcpl Kerr, â€œSir? Will you please run with me?â€. Throughout the course, Lcpl Kerr urged him on when the boy wanted to give up and ensured that the boy saw the course to completion where he was reunited with his party. By his unwavering commitment to help those in need through his ability to inspire others by his unequivocal level of motivation, Lcpl Kerr reflected great credit upon himself and was keeping in the highest traditions of the United States Marine Corps.
Cameron Mortenson, who (there’s no accounting for tastes) actually likes fiberglass fly rods, has a posting (with a slideshow of photos) on the late Robert Traver (John D. Voelker)’s camp at Frenchman’s Pond in winter.
He quotes Voelker, describing a childhood visit in winter to the camp:
I went along on a few of those outings as a kid, and usually wound up skiing around outside while the laughter echoed out of the cabin. I would busy myself by looking at the pond and surrounding woods. Even in the dead of winter the pond would never freeze completely over. Open spots would reveal where a spring bubbled up from below. I would mark those spots in my mind and revisit them on the hot days of late summer. There I would throw hopper patterns with my 8â€™glass Fenwick six weight that my Grandfather bought me at the local sporting goods store. On occasion, I would be rewarded for my craftiness and provoke a swirl from a large Brookie that had claimed the spot to fin in the cool water.â€
Hat tip to Brad Reiter.
Angling, Brown Trout, Corrections and Retractions, Manistee River, Michigan, Records, Thomas Healy, Tim Roller, World Record
Correction: Guide Tim Roller holding new world record Brown Trout
A potential world record 41 lb, 7 1/4 oz. (19.1 k.), 43.75″ (1.11 meter) Brown Trout (currently Salmo trutta, formerly Salmo fario) was caught on Wednesday in Michigan’s Manistee River.
Thomas Healy of Rockford, Michigan was fishing a crankbait (a plug with a lip causing it to dive when retrieved, “cranked,” i.e reeled in) using a spincasting rod and reel.
The previous record Brown Trout weighed 40 lb. 4 oz (18.26 k.) and was caught in 1992 on the Little Red River in Arkansas by Howard Collins.
Healy was being guided by Tim Roller of Ultimate Outfiteers.
The fish was weighed and measured by two Michigan state biologists.
Mr. Healy holding the gigantic trout
Thanks to commenter Amy of Riverside Charters for correcting the top photo ID.
The 911 emergency call system is central to the modern American’s relationship to government and society. Centralized planning has eliminated RFD addresses, denied mail delivery to named houses, and re-numbered streets widely to assure conformity to the 911 system’s best convenience.
When faced with an attacker or an emergency, the official viewpoint commonly asserts that you should call 911. Defending yourself or taking independent action in an emergency has been known to get people arrested. These kinds of things are supposed to be left to experts and persons in authority.
17-year-old Adrainne Ledesma of Lincoln Park, Michigan found her father, recovering from recent brain surgery, collapsed and having a seizure on the kitchen floor. She dialed 911.
Emotionally wrought, and clearly not the best brought up young lady, she grew frustrated when 911 failed to answer, and when her second call was finally, after an interval, picked up, exclaimed, “What the f**?”
The 911 dispatcher, one Sergeant Robert McFarland, was far more concerned with making sure the caller spoke to him politely than inquiring into the reason for her call. When the young lady yelled for a f****** ambulance, McFarland simply hung up on her.
Three more calls took a similar form, and when young Adrianne finally gave up and ran in person to a nearby police station seeking assistance, she found that McFarland had already alerted them, and she was arrested for “disorderly conduct.”
7 Action News 4:10 video
As we rely more on more upon centralized systems for our fundamental needs, we are going to find that the operation of remote and impersonal systems has a tendency to prioritize the convenience, and even the amour propre, of ordinary, and sometimes pompous and self-infatuated, human beings more concerned with their own perquisites and authority than with our problems.